Wall Street pros issue warning on stocks. Here’s what they say to buy
It’s time to get out of stocks and into other asset classes, some analysts have urged this week. Investors have fled stocks since U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech last week wiped out some gains from their summer rally. His speech made clear that rate hikes are set to continue — even if they cause more pain ahead. The Dow ended August down about 4.1%, while the S & P 500 and Nasdaq recorded losses of 4.2% and 4.6%, respectively. “The next few months are likely to become difficult for investors, and I think it is time to be prudent and reduce risk,” Credit Suisse’s Global Chief Investment Officer Michael Strobaek said in a note Tuesday. The Swiss investment bank has downgraded its equity allocation to underweight. “We … now believe the absolute return outlook for equities is outright unattractive in the coming months,” Strobaek added. Ben Gutteridge, director of model portfolio services at investment management firm Invesco, agrees. “It’s sort of difficult to get comfortable that equities are going to do particularly well in the short term,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday. Bonds more likely to ‘shield’ investors Gutteridge said that bonds are more likely to protect investors in a recession, compared to equities. “If that recessionary outcome transpires, the equities are unlikely to do very well. So you probably need some of these long-duration assets, government bonds to shield you a little bit more from a more troubling growth outcome,” he said. But Credit Suisse said that reducing its equity allocation underweight did not mean a “complete exit” from stock markets. “For now, investors should continue to keep diversifying portfolios as broadly as possible, including alternative investments and private markets,” Strobaek said. He urged investors to look for investments that can profit from the “new regime,” saying that, “private market solutions that have a longer-term focus, or emerging market hard currency bonds which offer a substantial yield pick-up to developed market bonds, are interesting opportunities in the current environment.” Buy commodities, Goldman says Commodities are the best asset to own at this stage of the investment cycle, Goldman Sachs argued in a Aug. 29 note entitled: “Buy commodities now, worry about the recession later.” “Equities could suffer as inflation stays elevated and the Fed is more likely to surprise on the hawkish side,” Goldman analysts wrote. “We believe commodities, on the other hand, are the best asset class to own during a late-cycle phase where demand remains above supply.” Goldman said the 12-month outlook for commodities look positive. It recommends taking an overweight position in the S & P GSCI energy index – which it expects to post total returns of over 50% on a 12-month basis. ” On a relative basis, oil prices now look cheap compared to global gas prices and even thermal coal given the run-up in these markets that oil has completely lacked,” Goldman wrote. “With oil the commodity of last resort in an era of severe energy shortages, we believe the pullback in the entire oil complex provides an attractive entry point for long-only investments.”
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